April 2020 Rainfall in Florida

Rainfall

April 2020 was a fairly normal weather month in Florida for a change.  In the two maps above, you can see the estimated rainfall and the departure from historic average rainfall in Florida for April 2020.  In the map to the left, the areas in green received between 5-6″, in yellow 3-4″, and along the coast in tan, only 2-3″.  Looking at the map on the right, the areas shaded in yellow or tan were below average, and the areas in green, blue and purple were above average in April 2020.

Jan-April 2020 Panhandle FAWN Rainfall

The Florida Automated Weather Network Stations provide more specific data for the six location in the Panhandle.  The weather station in DeFuniak Springs (Walton County) recorded the highest rainfall total of 9.2″ in April (5.3″ above average), whereas the station in Jay (Santa Rosa) had the lowest total of 2.2″ (-2.7″ below normal).  The Jay station was the only site, of the six in the Panhandle, with below-average rainfall in April.  The average for all six stations was 4.8″, which was 0.8″ below normal.  Through the first third of 2020, the driest location was Carrabelle (Franklin) with only 10.5″, and the wettest was in DeFuniak with 25.6″.  All six stations averaged 16.6″ thus far in 2020, which is -2.6″ below normal.

Root Zone Soil Moisture April 2020

The two Root Zone Soil Moisture maps above, show the transition from the end of March (left) through the end of April (right).  You can see that April rainfall significantly improved growing conditions across most of Florida, but did not provide as much improvement in the Panhandle.

FL April 2020 Drought Monitor

Similarly, the Florida Drought Monitor showed some improvement statewide from the end of March (left) through the end of April (right), for much of the state, but it was not uniform.  The area of moderate drought actually increased in Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Wakulla, Leon and Gadsden Counties.  Unfortunately,  the progress made in April has been lost in May, as I will show you later on.  However, the severe drought in Wakulla County  was downgraded to the moderate category by the end of April.

Temperatures

April 20 Marianna FAWN TemperaturesTemperatures rose significantly in early April, and then cooled somewhat at month’s end.  The high for April in Marianna was 89°, on April 9th, and the low of 48° was on April 11th.  The average temperature for the month was 69°.

April 20 Marianna FAWN Avg Soil Temps

Average soil temperatures in April started the month at 69° on April 1st, and rose to 88° on April 9th, before dropping back down again.  Somewhat unusually, the average soil temperature stayed above 68°, the minimum recommended temperature for planting peanuts, for the entire month of April in 2020.

Jan-Apr 20 Marianna FAWN Summary

In the weather summary from the FAWN Station in Marianna, you can see that there was not a significant change in temperatures, as compared to March.  Average air temperature was the same for both months, but the average soil temperature rose slightly from 71° in March, to 74° in April.  There have been only two days below freezing in 2020, and thankfully thus far, no days above 95°.

Outlook

14 day Outlook May 14 2020

This is not the typical monthly outlook that I have shared in the past, but instead a 14-day forecast through the end of May.  I am a little tardy sharing the April summary, but the outlook for May has changed significantly from what the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) was forecasting for May in mid-April.  There is no good news in their outlook forecast for the next two weeks.  We should expect hot and dry conditions to continue through the end of the month, based on the CPC’s outlook.

FL May 12 Drought Monitor

The current Drought Monitor map of Florida, shows that conditions have certainly deteriorated in the first two weeks of May.  Based on the recent CPC forecast, I would expect this to get worse, before it gets better.

What does this mean for farmers and ranchers?

If your plans include planting crops or pastures in the next two weeks without irrigation, you need to consider the risks. This is especially true for the regions in moderate or severe drought on the Drought Monitor map.  Planting into dry soil, or “dusting in a crop” is ok, but if there is just enough moisture for germination, you could have a poor stand, if there is limited rainfall over the next two weeks.  The high pressure weather system sitting over the Panhandle is preventing adequate rainfall.  Until that is pushed away from the region, we will not have a good chance of rain. I have shared this before, but it is worth a reminder. “If it is dry as a bone, postpone!”  My point is that, based on the CPC forecast, it would be wise to wait for afternoon showers in June before planting pastures or crops.  For dryland corn or cotton or peanuts already planted, this forecast is very concerning. However, there is always a silver lining for someone.  If you were fortunate enough to get decent rainfall in April, the next two weeks look pretty promising for hay harvest.

 

Doug Mayo
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