November 2020 FL Rainfall vs Historic AverageRainfall

After several months of above average rainfall, La Niña kicked in, so November was a much drier month across the Panhandle. You can see in the map to the left, which shows November 2020 rainfall estimates, that the Panhandle ranged from 1-5″ in November.  Wakulla County had the lone spot in yellow with more than 3.5″, but there were large areas in light brown that had less than 2″.  Most of the Panhandle ranged from 2-3.5″ for the month. Looking at the Peninsula, this map really shows the rainfall impact of Hurricane Eta on Southeastern and Central Florida.

The map to the right shows deviation from historic average.  The areas in yellow, tan and brown were all below average.  Only the small area in green in Wakulla, Leon, and Jefferson Counties was above average in November.

Jan-Nov 20 Panhandle FAWN Summary

The six  Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations show the variation in rainfall across the Panhandle in November.  The driest location was in Jay with only 1.6″, but the wettest location was in Quincy with only 3.5″ for the month.  The Quincy station was the only one that received above average rainfall.  The average of all six stations was 2.4″, which was -1.4″ below average for November.

Through 11 months, the station in DeFuniak had the highest total of 74″, while only 49″ has been collected in Carrabelle, which was the only location below average for the year thus far.  The average of all six stations was 63″, which was 8.5″ above normal through November.

November 2020 FAWN TempsTemperatures

There was a fairly significant temperature swing in November, from a high of 85° on November 11th, to a low of 36° on November 30th.  You can see from the trend lines there was decline in temperatures as we move through the month.

Jan-Nov 20 Marianna FAWN Summary

The cooling trend in November was most evident when you compare average air and soil temperatures.  The average air temperature dropped 7° from 72° in October to 65° in November.  Average soil temperatures dropped 8°, from 75° to 67°.  To get the complete daily summary from the Marianna FAWN station, and monthly rainfall totals from all six stations in the Panhandle, use the following link:  January-November 2020 Panhandle FAWN Weather Summary.

Winter 20-21 CPC OutlookWinter Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is expected a strong La Niña affect through the winter months.  As you can see from their graphic forecasts above, they are expecting well above average temperatures and well below average rainfall over the next three months.  This does not mean there won’t be cold snaps, but it does mean the cold fronts will primarily be pushed northwards as the move across the US in the coming months.  In their recent December Outlook (not shown) the CPC did not make any predictions for our area with equal chances of temperatures and rainfall, so they are expecting more effects in 2021 than in the early part of this three month outlook.

2020-21 Winter Drought OutlookBased on the current outlook, we can expect drought development along the Gulf Coast states this winter.

La Niña Advisory

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that Pacific sea temperatures cooled more in October indicating a stronger La Niña this winter than was once forecast.  There latest update is also predicting that warm and dry conditions will persist into the spring.

La Niña strengthened during October, as indicated by well below-average sea surface temperaturesA majority of the models predict La Niña to persist through winter 2020-21 and to weaken during the spring. The latest forecasts from several models suggest the possibility of a strong La Niña during the peak November-January season. The forecaster consensus supports that view in light of significant atmosphere-ocean coupling already in place. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance for January-March) and spring 2021 (~65% chance for March-May).

What does this mean to farmers and ranchers in the Panhandle?

Winter grazing, small grain, and cover crops may suffer as we move through the winter.  For several months the CPC has reported sea surface temperature cooling.  This affects power, and direction of cold fronts that pass through the US.  What was originally expected to be a weak La Niña is now stronger, which means it could take longer to get back to neutral.  While the biggest effects of this ENSO phase will occur in the winter months, there could be lingering effects through the spring months.  This may affect soil moisture when it is time to plant field corn, melons, and spring vegetables, and may also affect planting conditions for traditional warm season crops a month or two later.  If you are planting or fertilizing fields without irrigation, you will really need to pay attention to the short term forecasts and take advantage of rainfall when it comes.  It does appear 2021 will start much drier than previous years.  If you were counting on winter grazing to carry your livestock through this winter and early spring, you might want to stock up now on some extra hay.  Hay can get real scarce in the spring when everyone starts running out.

Doug Mayo
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