May 2021 Rainfal vs NormalRainfall

May 2021 had a lot of variation that made it somewhat unusual.  The month started cool and damp and ended with a high pressure system that held off rain with normal temperatures.  The two maps above show the rainfall totals for Florida compared to normal.  You can see in the map to the right that only the western tip of the Panhandle (Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties) received more than 6.5″ (dark Green and blue).  The rest of Florida received 1″ to 3.5″ (brown and tan), with large areas in the three shades of red that had less than 1″ in May.  In the map to the right you can see that most of Florida was well below average (yellow, tan, brown and red), with pockets in the western Panhandle and Osceola and Polk Counties above or well above average (green, blue, and purple).  But these maps show totals for the entire month, so they don’t tell the whole story.

Jan-May 2021 Panhandle FAWN Rainfall

The six Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations located in the Panhandle show the rainfall variation in May 2021.  The wettest location was in Jay, where 7.4″ were recorded, followed by the 5.3″ that fell in DeFuniak Springs.  Contrast those totals with the 1.3″ in Quincy, and 1.6″ in Monticello and you see the impact of the high pressure system that prevented rainfall for much of the month.  Three stations were below average and three were higher than normal.  The average for all six stations in May was 3.8″, which was -0.1″ below normal.

May 2021 Rainfall DistributionThis monthly totals really don’t tell the whole story however, because it was not just how much rain, but when it fell.  In Marianna the soils went from too wet to plant on May 12, to to dry for seed germination at month’s end.  May is traditionally one of the driest months of the year in Marianna, but when you have high temperatures in the low 90s and go 15 days straight without significant rainfall at or soon after planting you are going to have plant stress in crop fields and pastures.

As you might have expected, the Drought Monitor released on June 8 shows the eastern Panhandle has been downgraded to Abnormally Dry in the US Drought Monitor.  Hopefully June rainfall will make this a short term drought situation.

Through the first five months of 2021, the highest total of 31.1″ was recorded in DeFuniak, which is 6.8″ above normal.  Contrast that to the lowest totals of 17.8″ in Monticello and 21″ in Quincy, which were -4.9″  and -1.8″ below average.  The average for all six stations thus far in 2021 was 24.9″, which was 1.8″ above normal.

May 21 Marianna FAWN Temps

Temperatures

As I mentioned earlier, May started off fairly cool.  On May 8 the low temperature dropped to 51°, but by contrast the high of 93° came on May 25 (42° spread).  The average 6 foot air temperature was 74°, which according to NOAA was the coolest average since 2013.

Jan-May 21 Marianna FAWN Summary

As compared to April, the average air temperature rose 8° in May from 66° to74°.  Average soil temperatures also rose 8°, from an average of 71° to 79° in May.  For the year the Marianna FAWN station has recorded 26.5″ of rain, which was 3.3″ above normal.  The precipitation variation month to month has ranged from 2.6″ in May to 8.6″ in April.  You can download the daily temperature and rainfall summary from the Marianna FAWN, and the monthly precipitation summary for all six Panhandle station by using the following link:  Jan-May 2021 Jackson Co Weather Summary.

June 2021 CPC Outlook

Summer Outlook

Looking forward, the Climate Predication Center (CPC) is expecting normal temperatures and above average rainfall in June.  The EC in the temperature outlook map means that there are equal chances of above, normal or below average.  If this holds true, this should be good for crops and pastures.

CPC Summer 2021 Outlook

The longer ranged, Summer CPC Outlook for June-August has a high expectation for above average temperatures, and is also expecting above average rainfall, but with less confidence than higher average temperatures.  The good thing is the CPC is  not forecasting drought for the Panhandle region this summer.  The current Neutral ENSO phase should continue through the summer.  The big question that remains is what will happen this fall?  It is not uncommon to have back to back La Niña winters.  At this point of the year it is too early to confidently predict.

What does this mean for farmers and ranchers in the Panhandle?

June 3-9 2021 No FL FAWN Rainfall

While I know folks were getting real nervous over the final three weeks of May, June should bring positive change with more regular rainfall. Since the high pressure system finally broke up, summer rain showers should be more common again.  In the map above, you can see the total rainfall in North Florida over the first week of June.  Only the Carrabelle station remained dry.  This is a good sign and falls right in with the CPC outlook for June.   So while crops and pastures are behind schedule, the current outlook is much more positive.  It does appear conditions will continue to improve in the weeks ahead, and remain positive through the summer.  There may be some late planted fields that require replanting, but if you have a decent stand there should be enough moisture in the near future for recovery.

 

Doug Mayo
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