May 2025 Florida Cattle Market Update – Livestock Slaughter & Beef Production

 

Livestock slaughter in the first quarter of 2025 (January-March) totaled at 7.38 million head, down 4% from the first quarter of 2024. Cow slaughter, beef cow slaughter, and heifer slaughter in the first quarter were all lower year-over-year. Beef cow slaughter through March fell by 20% year-over-year, indicating we may see the 2025 national culling rate fall to previous expansion levels (~9%).

The May Livestock Slaughter Report summarizes slaughter data in and through April. Total cattle slaughter, heifer slaughter, and beef cow slaughter for the month of April were lower by  5.7%, 6%, and 15% year-over-year, respectively. Heavier fed cattle, with average steer carcass weights of 949 pounds so far in 2025, have been helping to offset the overall low supply of cattle entering the beef production system. However, these weights are not expected to increase by much more, as the number of profitable increased feeding days is limited. But with the second closure of the Southern border due to New World Screwworm, feedlots in the southern region may try to keep cattle longer to maintain pen capacity. Marketings will slow as a result. (note: based on the 10-year average (2015-2024), Mexican feeder cattle made up about 5% of feedlot placements in feedlots with over 1,000 head capacity.) The reality of tight supplies will be evident in cattle and beef prices throughout the rest of this year. Beef and cattle prices will also be impacted by consumer demand and their willingness to pay higher prices for beef.

As of April, beef production totaled at 2.24 billion pounds. Beef production for 2025 is forecasted to decline by about 2%. While this may seem like a slight decrease, 2% is still substantial when we look at how strong consumer demand currently is. Simply put, with limited supplies and strong demand comes high prices. Beef production in 2026 is forecasted to decline by 5%. Continued steady demand for high quality beef products will remain a major driver of prices for feeder and fed cattle amidst tight supplies.

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For questions, contact Hannah at h.baker@ufl.edu 

See this update and other helpful resources online at https://rcrec-ona.ifas.ufl.edu/about/directory/staff/hannah-baker/