Cotton Marketing News: Planting Intentions Overview and Considerations

by | Apr 4, 2025 | Cotton, Economics, Field Crops, Market

2024 Cotton Acres vs 2025 Planting Intentions ChartDon Shurley, UGA Emeritus Cotton Economist

Farmers say they intend to plant 9.87 million acres of cotton this year—down 11.8% from last year.  This is based on a survey of producers conducted by USDA during the first two weeks of March.  These estimates reflect farmer “intentions” as of the survey period.

These 9.87 million acres compare to 9.56 million acres estimated by the National Cotton Council (NCC) in February, and 10.0 million acres projected in the USDA Outlook Forum also later in February.  Most industry observers were expecting a reduction in acres planted of 12 to 15% or more.  So, 9.87 million is within most expectations but the reduction is on the lower side.

Prices (new crop December 2025 futures) have jumped to near 71 cents.  Price did not react Monday on the released numbers but seemed to have a “delayed” rally Tuesday.  The 9.87 million acres number cannot be considered a surprisingly low number, as it’s higher than the already known NCC estimate and close to the Outlook Forum number.  So, it’s hard to gauge whether or not 9.87 million acres is really a factor at this point.

 

Cotton Futures Price Chart 4-1-25–

The first USDA estimate of actual acres planted will not be out until June 30th.  Until then, we’ll go with the 9.87 number and begin to factor in weather and crop conditions.  This 9.87 “intentions” is subject to change due to prices, costs, and weather.

Worth Noting  USDA planting intentions are 311,000 acres higher than NCC’s February estimate.  Compared to the NCC’s number, USDA acreage was about the same or lower for every state except Arizona, Georgia, and Texas.  Texas “intentions” came in almost ½ million acres higher than the NCC February number, and Georgia 136,000 acres higher.  This is significant since these are the largest two cotton states. Will actual planted acres end up being lower than the USDA number and closer to the NCC’s number?  For example, I find it interesting and surprising that USDA intentions for Georgia are down only 100,000 acres for cotton compared to last year, but peanut intentions are up 100,000 and corn up 45,000—only 145,000 total.  I can tell you that peanut acres will be up and there appears to be a lot of corn going in.

The latest export report (for the week ending March 20) showed weak sales of only 107,500 bales but very good shipments at 417,400 bales.  Demand is still the main driver to better prices.  The U.S. supply side will be more firmed up in time.  In the meantime, good exports are crucial.  Uncertainties and the impacts of the tariff situation will also come into play.

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