Our Environment: Part 16 – The Future of Energy

In Part 15 of this series, we mentioned the need to begin seeking new sources of energy.  Currently fossils fuels are our go-to source, but this source is limited, and the demand is rising.  There are also issues with the waste produced from the drilling, processing, and burning of fossil fuels.  Just as we moved from wood to coal, and from coal to oil – we need now to begin looking for what will follow oil.  What options do we have?

Is oil still an option?

As most know, crude oil and natural gas are found in pockets beneath the earth’s surface.  We extract it by drilling deep wells, using gravity to drive the product towards the well head, and pump it to the surface.  At some point in time, usually about a decade, the pressure is lower and the well has reached peak production.  At that point we need to drive another well, sometimes in another location.  With the demand for this energy source rising, peak production wells are becoming common and new sources of oil are becoming harder to find.  The United States is particularly in a situation due the fact we use more oil than any other nation (24% of the world’s oil in 2011).  Much of the oil reserves are outside of the U.S. and managed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – which includes 12 nations.  OPEC stated that since 1984 oil production from existing reserves has exceeded the discoveries or new sources – this resource is diminishing.  It was predicted in 2011 that by 2025 70% of our oil needs would come from imports.  However, there was a decline in imports beginning around 2005 and today 60% of our oil use comes from domestic sources.  Here are some advantages and disadvantages of continuing with oil posted in 2011.

 

Advantages	Disadvantages
Ample supply for 40-100 years	Need to find substitutes within 50 years
Low cost	Large government subsides
Easily transported within and between countries	Pollutes air when produced and burned
Technologies are well developed	Can cause water pollution as well

 

Is natural gas an option?

Much of the natural gas reserves (27%) are found in Russia.  Other leading producers include Iran and Qatar – the U.S. only produces 3%.  This fossil fuel can be used to power factories, cook and heat homes, and power transportation.  Though extracting and burning natural gas produces greenhouse gases, it is less than coal and oil.  It can be transported across oceans if liquified.

 

Advantages	Disadvantages
Ample supplies	Releases CO2 when burned
High net energy yield	Government subsides
Low cost	Methane can leak from pipelines
Less air pollution than other fossil fuels	Difficult to transfer from one country to another

 

Is coal still an option?

In 2011 about 40% of the world’s electricity was generated by coal fired power plants.  There has been a decline over the last decade, with a particular drop during the pandemic, but it has seemed to have rebounded some since with an current estimated of about 33% of the world’s electricity being produced by coal.   Due to the pollution issues many nations have already begun to turn away from coal.  According to the International Energy Agency, China is currently burning three times more coal than all other countries combined.  However, this is expected to plateau by 2027.  It is the world’s most abundant fossil fuel source.  The US Geological Survey estimated in 2011 that coal could last between 214 and 1,125 years.  Today the current reserves in the US could last another 422 years.  The pollution issue is not only carbon dioxide but sulfur dioxide and trace amounts of mercury, and radioactive materials – it is the “dirtiest” fuel.

 

Advantages	Disadvantages
Ample supplies	Severe land disturbance, air pollution, and water pollution
High net energy yield	Soot is a human health risk
Low cost	Large government subsides
Well-developed technology	High CO2 emissions when produced and burned

 

Is nuclear energy an option?

For the purpose of boiling water to produce steam that spins a turbine and generates electricity, nuclear power plants are quite complex and expensive.  The fuel is mined uranium which is enriched from 0.7% fissionable uranium-235 to about 3%.  It is made into pellets.  These pellets are about the size of a pencil eraser and each pellet contains the energy equivalent to a ton of coal.  These pellets are placed into pipes called fuel rods.  The rods are moved in and out of the reactor to control the reaction and avoid a meltdown which could release large amounts of radioactive material.  The system is cooled by water.  This system is encased in a thick concrete structure called a containment shell to avoid the accidental release of radioactive material.  About once a year the spent fuel rods are removed, placed in holding tanks, and transported to an underground holding facility for long term storage – between 10,000 and 240,000 years.  However, after 60 years of using this form of energy – no country has developed such a storage facility, and the spent rods are currently stored on site.

 

In the 1950s researchers predicted that by the year 2000 at least 1,800 nuclear plants would supply 21% of the world’s energy.  In 2011, after large investments and government subsidies, there were 439 commercial power plants in 30 countries producing only 6% of the world’s energy.  That number has not changed.  Reasons for the decline include construction costs, operating costs, low net energy yield, public safety concerns, and increased safety regulations.

 

Advantages	Disadvantages
Ample supply of fuel	Cannot compete economically without government subsides
Low environmental impact (without accidents)	Low net energy yield
Moderate land use	Risk of catastrophic accidents
Low risk of accidents due to large number of safety systems	Long term storage problem
	Subject to terrorist attacks
	Spread knowledge and technology for building nuclear weapons

 

Listed above are the advantages and disadvantages of fossil fuel and nuclear energy – systems we have been using for a while.  With the concern of climate change, and other environmental risks, humans have begun looking at other energy sources.  In the next article we will look at those.  Either way – we still need the energy.

 

References

 

Coal. The International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/energy-system/fossil-fuels/coal.

 

Coal Explained. How Much Coal Is Left? U.S. Energy Information Agency. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coal/how-much-coal-is-left.php.

 

Miller, G.T., Spoolman, S.E. 2011. Living in the Environment. Brooks/Cole Cengage Learning. Belmont CA. pp. 674.