Another Look at Climate Change; Part 4 – What Can Be Done?

by Rick O'Connor | Jul 19, 2024

In this series we have found that in the 1970s and 1980s climate scientists developed models that could predict the effects of a warming planet on society.

We saw that society, at that time, had little faith in the accuracy of those model predictions.

We also saw that natural occurring events, like tropical storms and the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, gave climate scientists an opportunity to test their models – and their models past with flying colors.

We have seen the development of international councils and panels to address climate change, enhance the models, and provide advice on how to turn the potential negative effects of a warming planet around.

We have also seen that many of the predictions from those early models are occurring, some have occurred faster than the models indicated they would.

So…

Is there anything we can do about it?

The answer is pretty simple really.  Just like those trying to lose weight – you need to either reduce the calories you take in and/or burn those calories off.  With climate you need to reduce the amount of carbon you put into the atmosphere and/or remove the excess carbon.

In 2006 NASA climate scientists stated that we had about a decade to make some serious policy changes to avoid irreversible climate change that could cause economic and ecological havoc.  They mentioned we needed to cut CO_2­ emissions between 50-85% by 2050.  Their suggestions could be found on both sides of the solution model.

Other methods that could help reduce CO₂ emission…

1. Increase the fuel efficiency of our cars. One target had vehicles getting 60 mpg by 2057.
2. Reduce the distance we drive each year. One target had no more than 5000 miles/year.
3. Cut electricity use in homes and offices by 25%.
4. Increase solar power use.
5. Increase wind power use.
6. Increase the use of biofuels.
7. Stop deforestation.
8. Better methods in agriculture.
9. Install scrubbers in fossil fuel burning engines to clean emissions.

So…  How are we doing with these?

Cars are more fuel efficient than they were decades ago.  Many have turned to electric cars, or hybrids.

It seems that we are driving MORE miles each year – not less.  Our society is designed around the need for an automobile – we cannot function without one.  And our city planning seems to have us living farther and farther from our work.  When I was younger there was much talk about mass transit to reduce traffic and emissions.  In large cities where this was already ongoing it continues.  But in the other parts of the county this has not really caught on.  We are still driving too much.

There are methods of making homes more efficient.  My wife and I adopted some of these as we rebuilt our house after a fire.  Compared to neighbors and friends, our power bills are much lower.  Many of these methods and technologies are being used in new home developments and are encouraging.

Solar farms are increasing – even along I-10 in the Florida panhandle.  There is some concern that these solar farms are replacing food farms, but there is an attempt to do this.  Out west we see the same.

The same can be said for wind farms – at least out west.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, biofuel production has increased each year since 1980.

Deforestation has not slowed.  As a matter of fact, many developments in the Florida panhandle begin by removing ALL trees.  In some cases, they replace lost trees with saplings in the new neighborhoods.  But a major source of carbon removal has been removed from the system.  There is much more that needs to be done with this issue.

Speaking for the farmers in the Florida panhandle – yes… many have turned to better land management practices to protect their land and reduce, or sequester, carbon.

“Scrubber” in internal combustion engines is required by law in the U.S.

Despite some of these positive changes, carbon in our atmosphere continues to increase – not decrease.  Part of this is because this is a global issue and that all of human society must work together to reduce greenhouse emissions.  Some countries are doing better than others.  There are international summits every few years to discuss what the world should do to tur the tide on climate.  But all countries need to attend, particularly those producing the largest amount of greenhouse gases.

Here at home, there is resistance to reducing the use of fossil fuels, so many programs have not moved as far forward as they need to move.  It is also important to understand that even with the behavior changes we seek, it will take time to undo the damage already done.  We will not see improvement right away.  Enacting new programs and technologies now could take over 100 years to see the impacts.  It is important to understand that the longer we put changes off, the longer it will be before we see any positive benefits from those actions.

There is the concern that the political and public will is still not there to make these changes happen.  But they will need to if we are to see things begin to improve.

Until then – you can do your part.  Use fossil fuels as little and efficient has you can.  Plant trees to help remove carbon dioxide and shade your house so you need less air conditioning.  There are many other things you can do to help turn the tide on climate.  Check with your local extension office for more ideas.

Another Look at Climate Change – Part 2 How Might the Earth’s Temperature and Climate Change in the Future?

by Rick O'Connor | Jun 28, 2024

As I mentioned in Part 1, I taught Environmental Science in the 1990s and the first decade of the 21^st century.  The information provided below was taught at that time.  The purpose of this series on Another Look at Climate Change is to see if the predictions made at that time are occurring.

Over the 4.5 billion years of our planet’s existence the climate has been altered by volcanic eruptions, changes in solar input, continental drift, and impacts by large meteors.  Over the past 900,000 years our atmosphere has experienced periods of cooling and warming known as glacial and interglacial periods.  We have been fortunate to be in an interglacial period over the last 10,000 years that has allowed humans to exist and grow.  For the past 1000 years temperatures have remained relatively stable but in the last 100 years there has been a noticeable increase.  This began when humans began to clear the forests and burn fossil fuels.

Our planet has gone through extreme climate change in the past.
Photo: NOAA.

Evidence of these temperature changes has come from analysis of radioisotopes, fossils, plankton, ocean sediments, and tiny bubbles in ice cores.  Additional evidence has come from pollen found at the bottom of lakes, tree rings, bat dung in caves, and temperature records collected since 1861.

An ice core is being removed by a NOAA scientist.
Photo: NOAA

Interestingly we need the greenhouse effect to maintain the temperatures within a range for us to survive.  The Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first explained this greenhouse effect in 1896.  Solar radiation penetrates our atmosphere and warms the surface of the earth.  Hot air generated from this surface heating rises but is trapped by a layer gas that includes carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor.  These gases act as a greenhouse allowing light through but trapping the rising heated air.  Hence, they are known as greenhouse gases.  Without this natural greenhouse layer, the planet would be too cold for us to live here.

The greenhouse effect.
Image: NOAA

The industrial revolution began about 300 years ago.  The burning of fossil fuels, and loss of photosynthetic trees due to deforestation, resulted in significant increases in these greenhouse gases.  According to a 2007 study, if CO₂ emissions continue to increase at a rate of 3.3% each year, we will reach CO₂ concentrations near 560 parts per million by 2050 and could reach levels near 1,390 ppm by 2100.  At the time this was stated, 2011, scientific studies and models suggested we should prevent CO₂ from exceeding 450 ppm.  Going beyond this we might exceed a tipping point that could trigger climate change impacts for centuries.  NOTE: NOAA published in 2023 that the atmospheric CO_2­ concentration was 419 ppm. 

Power plant on one of the panhandle estuaries.
Photo: Flickr

In 1988 the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) to review past climate changes and predict future ones.  This network included over 2500 climate experts from 130 countries.  In their 2007 report they stated…

1. It is very likely (90-99% probability) that the lower atmosphere is warming.
2. Human activities are responsible for this.

Evidence used for these statements include:

1. Between 1906-2005 the mean global surface temperature had risen 1.3°F. Most of the increase had taken place SINCE 1980.
2. Annual greenhouse gases emissions from human activity have risen 70% between 1970 and 2005. Average CO₂ emissions were higher than they have been in 650,000 years.
3. Since 1960 Arctic temperatures have risen twice as fast as the rest of the planet.
4. In some parts of the world glaciers and sea ice were melting, rainfall patterns were changing, and prolonged droughts were on the rise.
5. During the 20^th century sea levels rose between 4-8 inches.

Data in 2011 showed that the melting of ice in the Arctic had increased since the 2007 IPPC report.  One scientist, Allan Robock, stated that the ice was melting at a faster rate than their computer models said it would.

What is the scientific consensus about future temperature change?

1. It is very likely (90-99% probability) that human activities are the cause of the recent increase. Particularly the burning of fossil fuels.
2. It is very likely (90-99% probability) the earth’s mean surface temperature will increase 3.6-8.1°F between 2005 and 2100. NOTE: Since 2005 the rate of warming has doubled.  In one year (2023) the mean temperature of the planet increased 1.44°F – the largest annual increase in 144 years.  This was partially due to being an El Nino year. 

In 2011 there was the question as to whether the oceans could help absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere.  At that time the ocean was absorbing between 25-30% of the CO₂ emitted by humans.  However, the solubility of CO₂ in the oceans decreases with increasing water temperatures.  As the oceans warm some of the dissolved CO₂ would be re-released into the atmosphere and could amplify global warming and climate change.  At that time, the oceans had warmed between 0.6-1.2°F during the 20^th century.  According to a 2007 study the oceans were absorbing less CO₂ than they had in the past.  NOTE: A 2017 study indicated that mean sea surface temperatures of the oceans have increased 0.22°F since 2000.  This is twice as fast as the early models predicted. 

The consensus is that the warming predicted by the computer models used at the time is occurring and – in some cases – faster than they thought.

In Part 3 we will look at what they thought some of the possible effects of this warming trend could be and whether any of those predictions have actually happened.

References

Miller, G.T., Spoolman, S.E. 2011. Living in the Environment; Concepts, Connections, and Solutions. 16^th Edition.  Brooks and Cole. Belmont CA. 674 pp.

Lindsey R. 2024. Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. NOAA Climate.  https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide.