by Rick O'Connor | Jan 19, 2016
In our last article about the red tides we discussed how the strange weather of 2015 caused some changes in the natural world around Pensacola Beach – mainly, it got warmer. Though climate change is happening, and we just had a major summit on the topic in Paris, the warming of 2015 was most directly impacted by one of the strongest El Niño’s on record.
What is an El Niño?
It is a term most of us have heard and know it has something to do with the climate – that it is associated with warming – but little else about it. It is a climatic phenomena that has been occurring for centuries. It was first reported by Peruvian fishermen around Christmas time – hence the name El Niño (“the child”).
The red indicates warm water temperatures. Notice the warm temps in the eastern Pacific – not normal.
Graphic: NOAA
The ocean currents off the coast of Peru, and California, are quite cold – in the 55 F range. These cold currents move from the poles towards the equator along the coast. These cold currents keep the precipitation low and the air dry – “it never rains in Southern California”. Mountains and deserts are associated with these regions as well. The cool air at the top of the mountains flows down and across the landscape towards the ocean – causing the surface waters along shore to move offshore – thus creating a current from the ocean floor to rise to the surface called an upwelling. These upwellings bring with them an abundance of nutrients and, mixed with the high oxygen content of the colder water, provide a soup for plankton growth which is food for an abundance of fish – these are some of the richest fishing grounds in the world.
Every so many years the fishermen noticed the fish would disappear. It usually began around Christmas time and they would have to find another means to make a living until they returned – which they always did. They would note this in their log books and we know now that the El Niño would occupier every 7-11 years. Marine and climate scientists noticed that during these El Niño years other species would suffer and the climate would change – the El Niño was not just about fishing. Measurements showed that the current temperatures off of California and Peru warmed during El Niño years from 50 to 80 degrees! The upwelling would stop, the fish would leave, the seals could not feed their young, it rained in places where it normally does not rain, and drought would occur in other parts of the world. Coral reefs would suffer and other global climate changes would occur.
Warm water in the eastern Pacific indicates an El Nino season.
Graphic: NOAA
What they have discovered is that the cold ocean currents from the poles that pass California and Peru typically reach the equator and flow westward towards Indonesia and Australia. As the water moved along the equator it would warm producing the tropical reef world of Southeast Asia and the Great Barrier Reef. But during El Niño years this warm water begins to move eastward – back towards California and Peru. The cause is not fully understood yet. But the dry air of California becomes moist, rain falls, which effects the climate all across the country. One notable event locally is that most of the hurricanes are pushed upwards into the Atlantic and miss the Gulf of Mexico. The El Niño usually last a year. One other note here also. El Niño is typically followed by a year of drastic cooling – the La Niña.
How are the El Niño’s effected by climate change?
Some scientist believe the frequency of El Niño will not change but that the frequency of “super” El Niño’s will – they will increase. “Super” El Niño’s occurred twice in the last 20 years and the impacts on fishing, agriculture, and other human actives have been significant. The over all warming of the oceans will fuel a stronger warming event during an El Niño year. W are currently having the strongest “super” El Niño on record.
We will see what 2016 brings, it will be interesting. I know it is 70 degrees right now (December 28) and there are butterflies in my yard.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-could-make-super-el-ninos-more-likely-16976
by Rick O'Connor | Sep 23, 2015
This area along Florida’s east coast is experiencing coastal flooding.
Photo: University of Florida
As we come towards the end of National Estuaries Week we will now look at some issues our estuaries are facing. Sea level rise is one that generates a variety of responses from the public. For some it is of concern, something we need to be planning for and need to spend more research dollars on to improve our models to understand it. For others, it is a problem for the back burner; yea, it is happening but the changes are over a long period of time and the serious impacts will not occur for a while – and we have more pressing issues to deal with. The old “it’s not a problem until it’s a problem” form of planning. Others still understand it but do not believe the models and do not believe the impacts will be very serious – thus warrants little or no planning. And there are those who do not believe climate change and sea level rise is actually occurring. They see no tangible evidence of any changes. Each year feels like the last – it just is not happening.
A couple of years ago I was part of a team that conducted a series of focus group meetings with residents and businesses who live and work on our barrier islands. The focus of the discussion was to determine what the coastal residents were most concerned about in terms of climate change, sea level rise, and coastal resiliency. The majority of the participants did not deny climate change but were not concerned about planning for it at this time; they had other issues were more pressing… like coastal flooding and the national flood insurance plan – which plans to increase rates for properties in flood prone areas. Ironically, this issue is tied to climate change and sea level rise. They were more concerned about it than they realized. And we did have a few who asked the question – “is there any science that supports the notion of climate change?” Let’s start there… is there any science to support this?
Yes… this link to NASA (http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/) is a page developed to help the public better understand what the science says about this. Yes, there is evidence that the carbon is increasing in our atmosphere, that global temperatures are rising, as are sea levels. Many are experiencing some of the changes that were discussed in the 1980’s. Some areas are seeing more rain, others more drought. Gardeners in parts of the country are noticing that things they use to do in April, they now do in March. More tropical plants and animals are migrating north – there are at least three records of red and black mangroves growing the Florida panhandle and a snook was caught a couple of years ago at Dauphin Island, Alabama. These subtle changes have been noticed by some. Others, such as those in southeast Florida, have witnessed more direct evidence, such as portions of A1A going underwater during extreme high tides. But there is science to support this.
Islands in the south Pacific who are dealing with the impacts of sea level rise during storm events.
Photo: Greenpeace
What is causing sea level rise?
Well, according to a document published by Florida Sea Grant there are three general causes.
- Temperature – as the atmosphere and oceans warm the water expands thus causing the sea level to rise. This thermal expansion has accounted for about 25% of the sea level rise we have witnessed; between 1993 and 2010 it accounted for 40% of it.
- Ice melt – 60% of the current rise in sea level has been due to the melting of land based ice; such as glaciers.
- Land fall – for a variety of reasons, some coastal land masses have actually dropped; thus forcing the sea level to rise.
What do the current models predict for future sea level rise?
Most of the models are predicting an increase between 1.5 and 4.5 feet, depending on where you are, by 2100.
So what?
Again some coastal communities are experiencing impacts now. South Florida Water Management District is currently replacing all of their gravity flow drains due to the fact that sea level has risen enough that they only work at low tide. Monroe County (Florida Keys) is now replacing their vehicles at a faster rate due to constant driving through salty flood waters. Many Florida coastlines are now experiencing saltwater intrusion of their freshwater supply. This is partially due to the over consumption of that resource but it is also due to sea level rising introducing salt water to these systems. There has been increased flooding in many parts of the country, including the Florida Panhandle.
So what does this mean for our local estuaries?
As we have said, sea level rise has occurred before – will this be a problem for our estuarine habitats? Generally ecosystems adjust to environmental change over time but they cannot respond if these changes occur too fast. Scientists have determined that an increase of 0.13” of sea level/year will flood our coastal marshes and we may lose them; currently the rate is about 0.11”/year. It is believed that our barrier islands will “roll” landward but science is not sure how fast this will happen. There may be changes in species composition within our estuaries – which could be good or bad – and there is certainly room for the expansion of invasive species.
A graphic indicating the potential flooding of Florida.
Graphic: Green Policy 360
How has government responded?
Federal and county governments have responded – the state… not so much. According to Thomas Ruppert (Florida Sea Grant) the local governments have done the best job planning for these future changes. Many areas in the state now require some form of sea level rise planning in all new development projects. At the very least coastal communities should look at future development plans and think long term as to where flooding may become a bigger issue.
“The times they are a changing…”
by Will Sheftall | Oct 26, 2014
“Within the past five years, nine of the 14 villages in Nunavik in northernmost Quebec have had to install cooling systems at community ice hockey arenas to keep the rinks cold during winter.“
– The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions
Have you wondered how Florida’s wildlife conservation policy planners and habitat managers are responding to the new management challenge of predicted coastal habitat loss from sea level rise? And how that overlays on predicted habitat loss from a 50-year doubling of Florida’s human population? Are the model predictions for both trends reliable enough to give planners a platform for recommending actions to ensure a habitable Florida for wildlife and for our grandchildren?
It’s a daunting task. The latest reports released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [ http://www.floridaclimateinstitute-uf.org/new-ipcc-report-climate-change-2014-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability/ ] serve to compress our “breathing room” of time to shift gears into planning for a “multiple-whammy” future – a future that just a decade ago, few natural resource managers knew they would soon need to anticipate. How do we juggle explosive population growth, accelerating freshwater depletion, and rapid climate change? What initiatives and efforts are underway?
To answer this question, let’s turn to Dr Thomas Eason, Director of the Division of Habitat and Species Conservation at the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). Dr Eason gave a talk on campus a year ago at the UF/IFAS conference, “Sustaining Economies and Natural Resources in a Changing World.” His 25-minute presentation, “Florida Fish and Wildlife – Adapting to a Changing World,” was recorded and posted at [ http://training.ifas.ufl.edu/FCI2013/Session4_Natural_Resources_Eason/main.htm ]
Eason noted that globally, climate change is predicted to result in the extinction of 10-40% of all wildlife species. FWC has generated vulnerability assessments for a first suite of rare and imperiled species, and some non-native invasive exotic species as well. Analysis has shown that for many non-native species in Florida, climate change will create new habitats, and they will expand their range, while imperiled species will more likely experience shrinkage of habitat that is already inadequate.
Eason noted that sea level rise will directly impact “tens of thousands” of acres of Florida habitat, and that consideration of secondary and tertiary impacts had yet to be addressed by habitat planners. Species adaptation planning has been undertaken in collaboration with GeoAdaptive (formerly MIT). Thus far, the initiative includes future habitat modeling for six South Florida species for which FWC has good data, under three different scenarios for sea level rise.
Eason concluded with the metaphor that society (and the natural resource conservation professions) are in a car he called “Business-as-Usual” (BAU) colliding in slow motion with a wall (future reality), and that even if we don’t know it yet, BAU is “already blowing up” because “humans have put things in motion that are not going to stop”(changes in technology, demographics, the economy and climate) that will make our world 50 years hence radically different from today’s world.
by Mark Mauldin | Feb 20, 2014
As Floridians we often struggle to find any upside to these cold, gray days we’ve been experiencing past few months. As “unfloridian” as our winters can be they pale in comparison to those endured by the more northern states. In fact, the last days of winter can be the ideal time of year in the Panhandle to tackle some outdoor chores like controlling unwanted trees and other woody plants.
Controlling trees can be hard work, the cooler temperatures can make the task a little less taxing. The relative inactivity of the “creepy crawlies” and pests often found in wooded areas is another reason to consider completing tree and woody plant removal projects during the winter.
Tree control generally involves mechanical removal. In some cases mechanical removal provides only short term control; in other cases it can actually increase the number of unwanted plants over time. This is the problem with both Chinese tallow (popcorn tree) and privet. Herbicide treatments can eliminate the possibility of regrowth and provide permanent control. The herbicide application techniques used to control trees and other woody plants are very selective and they are effective during the winter. These techniques provide opportunities to use herbicides in a controlled and very targeted manner with very little risk to surrounding plants. Additionally, the techniques below are most effective through the fall and winter when sap flow in trees is lessened.
For best results the cut stump treatment should be done immediately after the tree has been cut down. Photo courtesy of Mark Mauldin.
The cut stump technique is a fairly common and very effective method of achieving permanent control of woody plants. As the name implies, the first step in the cut stump technique is to cut down the tree. Immediately after cutting down the tree spray or paint the stump with herbicide. On smaller stumps the entire surface should be covered with herbicide; on larger stumps effective control can be achieved by only covering the outside three inches of the stump.
With the basal treatment, cover the bottom 12 to 18 inches of the tree with the herbicide oil mixture. Be sure to cover the entire circumference of the tree. Photo courtesy of Mark Mauldin.
Two additional herbicide application techniques that work well on woody plants do not require the plants to be cut down first. The basal application technique works best on smooth barked woody plants with a diameter of less than six inches. This technique involves spraying the bottom 12 to 18 inches of the tree with an herbicide oil mixture.
The hack and squirt method works well on large and/or thick barked trees. This technique involves using hatchet or other tool to cut through the bark around the circumference of the tree, then applying herbicide directly to the cut. Several months should pass between herbicide application using either of these techniques and mechanical removal.
The hack and squirt treatment is best for large and/or thick barked trees. Photo courtesy of Mark Mauldin.
Be sure to read and follow the label of any herbicide you use. Always wear the proper personal protective equipment. For more information on the techniques described, including recommended herbicides and rates, read Herbicide Application Techniques for Woody Plant Control or contact your county’s UF/IFAS Extension Office.
by Judy Biss | Feb 2, 2014
Even though adapted to weather extremes, these migratory American goldfinches (Spinus tristis) appreciated the food and cover provided in this backyard. Photo by Judy Ludlow
North Florida experienced a weather delight (or distress depending on your point of view!) this week in the form of freezing rain and snow! The words “Florida” and “snow” are two words most people would not place together in the same sentence, but you may be surprised to learn that snow has been documented a number of times in Florida as revealed by records as early as 1891. In Tallahassee, measurable snow has not fallen since 1989.
The following information is taken from the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Tallahassee, FL about the history of Snowfall in Tallahassee: Several winters ago, NWS Tallahassee Climate Focal Point, Tim Barry, responded to an inquiry from a reporter concerning snow climatology in Tallahassee. Some of those questions and answers are listed below.
In ten-year intervals, how many times has it snowed in Tallahassee Florida?
How frequently does Tallahassee see snowfall?
From the information provided in the 1st question, we see that it snowed 32 times in Tallahassee since 1891. Please note that all but 7 of these occurrences were only Trace amounts. If we were to divide the period of record (117 years) by 32 we would get a frequency of once every 3.66 years. But as you can see from above, the more frequent occurrences of snow in the 50’s ,60’s and 70’s have skewed the results. The return period for measurable snow is just once every 17 years. The most snow recorded in a 24-hour period was 2.8″ from February 12th – 13th, 1958.
Any interesting or exciting facts about Tallahassee winters?
There is a significant difference between the climate of north Florida and the southern portions of the peninsula. On average, we experience 35 days with minimum temperatures at or below freezing with most of these occurring from December through March. The coldest temperature ever recorded in Tallahassee was -2 F on February 13th 1899. More recently, we dipped down to 6 degrees F on January 21st, 1985.
Florida’s wildlife, although adapted to Florida’s weather, will thrive given the added boost of backyard habitats planned for their benefit, especially during these winter weather extremes! During the winter, Florida’s native, resident, wildlife species are also joined by species which are here temporarily as they migrate through our state. The hundreds of American goldfinches (Spinus tristis) outside my window are one example.
Do you see the red cardinal in the shrub? A variety of cover strategically placed near food sources helps minimize predation and provides protection from weather extremes. Photo by Judy Ludlow
When growing your backyard habitat, think about recreating features which are naturally provided in undisturbed habitats, but only on a smaller scale. To flourish, wildlife need adequate nutritious foods, functional cover, and clean water. Locating food close to cover minimizes the exposure of foraging wildlife to severe weather conditions and to predation; these two factors account for a large percentage of mortality. Cover comes in the form of trees, shrubs, brush piles, etc. of varying heights and sizes.
Brush piles such as this one provide valuable wildlife habitat for many species. Photo by Judy Ludlow
The following information is from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission’s publication: Planting a Refuge for Wildlife.
Cover: Breeding, nesting, hiding, sleeping, feeding and traveling are just a few of the necessary functions in an animal’s life which require protective cover or shelter. Often plants used for cover double as food sources. Strategic placement of cover is very important in that it reduces exposure to weather extremes and provides escape from predators.
Food: All animals get their energy for survival from plants or other animals. The ideal wildlife management plan uses natural vegetation to supply year-round food – from the earliest summer berries to fruits that persist through winter and spring (such as sweetgum, juniper and holly). You will attract the widest variety of wildlife to your land by using native plants to simulate small areas of nearby habitat types. The “edges” where these habitat types meet will probably be the most visited areas in your neighborhood.
The boundary between two habitats such as between this lawn and small wooded area, creates an “edge effect” which is important to wildlife. Photo by Judy Ludlow
If you are interested in learning more about this topic, please read the following publications and, as always, please contact your local UF/IFAS Extension Agent if you have any questions.
Planting a Refuge for Wildlife
Landscaping for Wildlife
A Drop to Drink
Eight Ways to Double the Bird Species at Your Feeders
Landscaping for a Song
Making Your Backyard a Way Station for Migrants
On Your Own Turf
Plant Berry Producing Shrubs & Trees
Plant Wax Myrtles
There’s Life in Dead Trees
